The public hearing of the Autorité des Marchés Financiers’ (AMF) Enforcement Committee (EC)
was held on Friday, 25 November 2022. Its decision is expected in the coming weeks. H2O AM
therefore wishes to provide the following clarifications.
The Oil Shock Markets Refuse to Price
Markets may be under-pricing the oil shock’s macro impact. Investors are dismissing both duration and non-linearity: the longer oil prices stay elevated, the greater the cumulative drag on growth, while shocks become disproportionately more disruptive at higher price levels, with moves above $100 carrying materially larger macroeconomic consequences.